Forecast Planned Sales Demand from Historical Periodic Discounts

In this article

Calculating the Actual Discount Performance of historical Periodic Discounts

Linking a new Periodic Discount to historical Periodic Discounts

Calculating the Planned Discount Performance of a new Periodic Discount

Creating Planned Sales Demand lines based on the forecast

Discount Performance related tasks

See also

It is possible to let the system automatically suggest sales demand for your upcoming Periodic Discounts, using the actual sales performance data from past Periodic Discounts. Based on this forecast, Planned Sales Demand lines can be created and applied in the Replenishment Journal calculation, ensuring sufficient stock is ordered to meet the anticipated increase in demand during the discount period.

Below are the processes related to this functionality.

Calculating the Actual Discount Performance of historical Periodic Discounts

This process aims to calculate the actual sales performance of historical periodic discounts by determining the average daily sales of items during both discount and non-discount periods, and comparing them to identify the demand increase factor.

Example:

A Periodic Discount P0001 was applied to item 10010, and its average daily sales during the discount and non-discount periods were calculated as follow:

 

Historical sales

(Non-Disc. Period: 01/08/2025 - 03/08/2025, Disc. Period: 04/08/2025 - 06/08/2025)

Date Item No. Sales Qty. Discount No.
01/08/2025 10010 105 -
02/08/2025 10010 98 -
03/08/2025 10010 97 -
04/08/2025 10010 106 P0001
05/08/2025 10010 124 P0001
06/08/2025 10010 160 P0001

 

Daily Sales = Total Sales Qty. / Numbers of days

 

Daily Sales (Disc.)

= (106 + 124 + 160) / 3

= 390 / 3

= 130

 

Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)

= (105 + 98 + 97) / 3

= 300 / 3

= 100

 

Lift Factor % = (Daily Sales (Disc.) - Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) / Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) * 100

= ((130 - 100) / 100) * 100

= (30 / 100) * 100

= 30

 

This would result in a demand lift factor of 30%.

Additionally, for Periodic Discount of type Discount Offer, the system would also calculate the Price Elasticity, which measures how much the demand quantity increases as a result of the price drop.

Example:

Daily Sales (Disc.) = 130

Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = 100

 

Price Elasticity = ((Daily Sales (Disc.) - Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) / Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) / (-Disc. % / 100)

= ((130 - 100) / 100) / (-10 / 100)

= (30 / 100) / -0.1

= -3

 

Based on a Disc. % of 10%, this results in a Price Elasticity of -3.

Since the absolute value of the elasticity (|–3| = 3) is greater than 1, the demand is classified as elastic.

Note: Actual Discount Performance calculation is supported for Periodic Discounts of type Discount Offer, Multibuy, Mix & Match, and their corresponding archived records.

Linking a new Periodic Discount to historical Periodic Discounts

To forecast sales demand for a new Periodic Discount, you need to link it to similar historical Periodic Discounts. A new discount can be linked to one or more historical discounts, and you can assign a weight to each link to determine how much each historical discount influences the planned demand calculation.

Example:

A new Periodic Discount P0003 is linked to the historical discounts P0001 and P0002.

 

Historical Discount No. Weight % Share
P0001 4 40
P0002 6 60

 

With this setup, the historical sales from discount P0001 will contribute 40% to the planned demand calculation, while the historical sales from discount P0002 will account for 60%.

Calculating the Planned Discount Performance of a new Periodic Discount

To calculate the planned sales performance of the new Periodic Discount, the system uses actual performance data from the linked historical Periodic Discounts. The results show the expected daily sales of the items during the discount period, along with the projected increase in sales quantity and the percentage change in demand compared to non-discounted sales.

Example:

The new Periodic Discount P0003 is linked to the historical discounts P0001 and P0002 with the weight of 4 and 6 respectively.

 

The actual discount performance of the historical discounts for item 10010 were calculated as follow:

P0001: Daily Sales (Disc.) = 130, Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = 100, with a Price Elasticity of -3 based on a Disc. % of 10%.

P0002: Daily Sales (Disc.) = 100, Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = 80, with a Price Elasticity of -2.5 based on a Disc. % of 10%.

 

Calculation without considering Price Elasticity:

Weighted Daily Sales = Daily Sales * Weight / Total Weight

P0001 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)

= 100 * 4 / (4 + 6)

= 40

 

Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)

= 130 * 4 / (4 + 6)

= 52

 

P0002 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)

= 80 * 6 / (4 + 6)

= 48

 

Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)

= 100 * 6 / (4 + 6)

= 60

 

P0003 (new discount):

Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = (P0001 Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) + (P0002 Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.))

= 40 + 48

= 88

 

Daily Sales (Disc.) = (P0001 Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)) + (P0002 Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.))

= 52 + 60

= 112

 

This shows that when the new discount is applied to item 10010:

  • The expected daily sales during the discount period is 112 units.

  • The sales quantity is projected to increase by 24 units per day compared to non-discounted sales.

  • The demand is expected to rise by 27.27% compared to non-discounted sales.

 

Calculation with Price Elasticity considered:

P0003: Disc. % is increased to 20%, as compared to 10% in the historical discounts.

 

Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) * Weight / Total Weight

P0001 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)

= 100 * 4 / (4 + 6)

= 40

 

P0002 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)

= 80 * 6 / (4 + 6)

= 48

 

Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.) = (((Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) * -(Price Elasticity))

* (New Disc. % / 100))

+ Daily Sales (Non-Disc.))

* Weight / Total Weight

P0001 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)

= (((100 * -(-3)) * (20 / 100)) + 100) * 4 / (4 + 6)

= ((300 * 0.2) + 100) * 4 / 10

= (60 + 100) * 4 / 10

= 64

 

P0002 (historical discount):

Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)

= (((80 * -(-2.5)) * (20 / 100)) + 80) * 6 / (4 + 6)

= ((200 * 0.2) + 80) * 6 / 10

= (40 + 80) * 6 / 10

= 72

 

P0003 (new discount):

Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = (P0001 Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) + (P0002 Weighted Daily Sales (Non-Disc.))

= 40 + 48

= 88

 

Daily Sales (Disc.) = (P0001 Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.)) + (P0002 Weighted Daily Sales (Disc.))

= 64 + 72

= 136

 

This shows that when the new discount is applied to item 10010:

  • The expected daily sales during the discount period is 136 units.

  • The sales quantity is projected to increase by 48 units per day compared to non-discounted sales.

  • The demand is expected to rise by 54.55% compared to non-discounted sales.

Note: Planned Discount Performance calculation is supported for Periodic Discounts of type Discount Offer, Multibuy, Mix & Match, and their corresponding archived records.

Creating Planned Sales Demand lines based on the forecast

Planned Sales Demand Lines are created based on the calculated Planned Discount Performance results. These lines are then applied within the Replenishment Journal calculation to ensure sufficient stock is ordered to meet the expected increase in demand during the discount period.

Planned Sales Demand Lines can be created based on one of these 3 Planned Demand Types. Below are their calculation formulas:

Substitute Quantity = Daily Sales (Disc.)
Additional Quantity (to Forecast) = Daily Sales (Disc.) - Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)
Additional % Factor (to Forecast) = (Daily Sales (Disc.) - Daily Sales (Non-Disc.)) / Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) * 100

Example:

If the selected Planned Demand Type for item 10010 is Additional % Factor (to Forecast), using the previous example without considering Price Elasticity:

Daily Sales (Disc.) = 112

Daily Sales (Non-Disc.) = 88

 

Additional % Factor (to Forecast)

= (112 - 88) / 88 * 100

= 24 / 88 * 100

= 27.27

 

The Planned Sales Demand lines will be created for the item on each discount day with the Planned Demand of 27.27% as additional factor.

Note: Planned Sales Demand Lines creation is supported for Periodic Discounts of type Discount Offer, Multibuy, and Mix & Match.

Discount Performance related tasks

The following table is a list of related tasks with links to the articles that describe them.

To See
Calculate the Actual Discount Performance of historical Periodic Discounts. How to: Calculate Actual Discount Performance
Calculate the Planned Discount Performance of new Periodic Discounts. How to: Calculate Planned Discount Performance
Create Planned Sales Demand lines based on the calculated Planned Discount Performance. How to: Create Planned Sales Demand Lines from Planned Discount Performance
Delete the Actual and Planned Discount Performance lines. How to: Delete Discount Performance Lines
View the item's sales pattern during the discount and non-discount periods, and the projected demand of upcoming discount with the Actual and Planned Discount Performance Charts. Discount Performance Charts

See also

Replenishment Planned Sales Demand